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Prediction market tax calculator

Estimate the federal tax on your Kalshi and Polymarket trading, see how the 60/40 rule splits your gains, and compare 60/40, capital gains and gambling treatment side by side.

$
After fees. Use a minus sign for a loss.
Kalshi treatment
60/40 (Section 1256) is the common choice for Kalshi. Why
$
After fees. Use a minus sign for a loss.
Polymarket treatment
Short-term (positions held a year or less) is the common choice for Polymarket. Why
Your ordinary income bracket. Long-term gains use the matching 0%, 15% or 20% rate.
For the gambling comparison (optional)
$
$
Gambling treatment taxes your total winnings and handles losses separately, so it needs these gross totals (after fees) instead of your net result.
Estimated federal tax $0
Short-termLong-term
Kalshi (60/40)
Polymarket
Net (Schedule D)

Compare treatments

If all your trading is treated asFederal tax

Federal estimate only. It doesn't include state tax, the 3.8% net investment income tax, or a large gain pushing you into a higher bracket. Not tax advice.

Get your exact numbers and forms

How this calculator works

Kalshi gains and losses are split 60% long-term and 40% short-term by default, the Section 1256 treatment most traders and preparers use for Kalshi, or short-term if you choose that option. Polymarket results are treated as short-term by default, or 60/40 if you choose that option.

Short-term and long-term results are then netted the way Schedule D does it. Short-term gains are taxed at your ordinary rate, and long-term gains at 0%, 15% or 20% depending on your bracket. If the year ends in a net loss, up to $3,000 of it can reduce your other income, and the rest carries forward.

Gambling treatment taxes your total winnings as ordinary income. Losses only reduce it if you itemize deductions, and starting with 2026 only 90% of losses count, never more than your winnings. That's why the comparison asks for your winning and losing totals separately.

Real returns have more moving parts: positions still open at year end, fees, other capital gains, your exact income and your state. For your actual numbers, read how Kalshi trades are taxed and how to report Polymarket trades, or let QastLedger build them from your trades.